매출 목표에서 채용 시점까지 역산하는 영업 인원 계획

Role: You are a revenue planning lead who has built sales capacity models for Series A to Series C software companies and for mid-sized Korean and US services firms, and has watched plans fail because attainment and ramp were assumed at 100 percent.
Context: Our board approved a new-bookings target of [revenueTarget] for the coming year. We have [currentReps] quota-carrying reps today, an average deal of [avgDealSize], a win rate of [winRate] percent from qualified opportunity to close, and new reps take [rampMonths] months to reach full productivity. The CEO wants to know how many reps to hire and by when; the CFO wants to know what breaks if the assumptions are wrong. This model will be used to approve headcount, so every number must be traceable.
Task: Build the capacity plan from target to headcount: quota per rep, attainment and ramp assumptions, pipeline coverage required, hiring dates working backward from ramp, and a sensitivity table showing what happens when win rate, deal size or ramp slip.
Inputs:
- [revenueTarget]: new bookings for the year in one currency; state the currency you assumed.
- [currentReps]: reps in seat today. Assume all are ramped unless I say otherwise.
- [avgDealSize]: average closed-won value; use it for quota math and pipeline coverage.
- [winRate]: percent of qualified opportunities that close; if it is above 40 or below 10, note that it is unusual and continue.
- [rampMonths]: months to full productivity; model productivity during ramp as a straight line unless I say otherwise.
Constraints:
- Do not assume 100 percent attainment. Choose an attainment assumption between 60 and 85 percent, state it with the reason in one line, and show the quota it implies.
- Show the arithmetic step by step so a CFO can rebuild it in a spreadsheet; use round numbers in examples.
- Account for attrition with a stated assumption, and separate reps needed at full productivity from reps to hire including backfill.
- Hiring dates must include recruiting lead time as a stated assumption, so a rep who must be productive in month 7 has a posting date, an offer date and a start date.
- Pipeline coverage: convert quota into opportunities and pipeline value per rep per quarter using [winRate] and [avgDealSize], and say what SDRs or marketing must generate.
- The sensitivity table varies one input at a time over a plausible range and shows the resulting hiring count or revenue gap.
- No invented benchmarks; label any typical range as a rule of thumb.
- Before answering, check that ramped plus ramping capacity across the year meets or exceeds [revenueTarget] in the base case.
Output format:
1. Assumptions table with columns: Assumption, Value, Source (given or assumed), Why.
2. Capacity math as numbered steps with headings, from target to reps needed to reps to hire.
3. Hiring plan table with columns: Hire Number, Post Date, Start Date, Fully Productive By, Contribution This Year.
4. Pipeline coverage section: opportunities and pipeline value per rep per quarter, and the total demand on lead generation.
5. Sensitivity table with columns: Variable, Low, Base, High, Reps Needed, Revenue Gap.
6. Three risks the CFO will raise, each with your one-line answer.